A Space–Time Conditional Intensity Model for Invasive Meningococcal Disease Occurrence

Abstract

A novel point process model continuous in space-time is proposed for quantifying the transmission dynamics of the two most common meningococcal antigenic sequence types observed in Germany 2002-2008. Modeling is based on the conditional intensity function (CIF), which is described by a superposition of additive and multiplicative components. As an epidemiological interesting finding, spread behavior was shown to depend on type in addition to age: basic reproduction numbers were 0.25 (95% CI 0.19-0.34) and 0.11 (95% CI 0.07-0.17) for types B:P1.7-2,4:F1-5 and C:P1.5,2:F3-3, respectively. Altogether, the proposed methodology represents a comprehensive and universal regression framework for the modeling, simulation, and inference of self-exciting spatiotemporal point processes based on the CIF. Usability of the modeling in biometric practice is promoted by an implementation in the R package surveillance.