Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives

TLDR

Economic losses from floods have risen sharply due to expanding asset exposure, and climate‑model projections of heavier rainfall suggest increased local flooding, yet confidence in numerical flood‑magnitude projections remains low. The study reviews IPCC SREX literature and recent publications to evaluate changes in flood risk across seven regions. This assessment synthesizes existing and new literature to analyze regional flood‑risk trends. A comprehensive view of rainfall‑driven flood risk for the late 20th and early 21st centuries is presented, but attributing peak streamflow trends to anthropogenic climate change has proven impossible. Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59(1), 1–28.

Abstract

A holistic perspective on changing rainfall-driven flood risk is provided for the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Economic losses from floods have greatly increased, principally driven by the expanding exposure of assets at risk. It has not been possible to attribute rain-generated peak streamflow trends to anthropogenic climate change over the past several decades. Projected increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall, based on climate models, should contribute to increases in precipitation-generated local flooding (e.g. flash flooding and urban flooding). This article assesses the literature included in the IPCC SREX report and new literature published since, and includes an assessment of changes in flood risk in seven of the regions considered in the recent IPCC SREX report—Africa, Asia, Central and South America, Europe, North America, Oceania and Polar regions. Also considering newer publications, this article is consistent with the recent IPCC SREX assessment finding that the impacts of climate change on flood characteristics are highly sensitive to the detailed nature of those changes and that presently we have only low confidence1 in numerical projections of changes in flood magnitude or frequency resulting from climate change.Editor D. KoutsoyiannisCitation Kundzewicz, Z.W., et al., 2013. Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 1–28.