The impact of crime on tourist arrivals in Jamaica

Abstract

Abstract This paper examines the relationship between tourist arrivals and changes in the crime rate in Jamaica over the period 1962–1999. In particular, it uses a transfer function to account for variations in total arrivals and arrivals from the European market, owing to changes in the crime rate. The transfer function allows for the modelling of the immediate and delayed effect of crime rates on tourist arrivals. The paper finds first that although crime rates have a negative impact on tourism arrivals in both markets, it is of greater concern in the European market. Secondly, the impact of crime in the overall market is relatively small, because of increased advertising and promotion and the growth of all‐inclusive hotels. Finally the level of crime, especially violent crime, has to be reduced, because although the number of crimes against tourists has declined, high violent crime rates tend to raise concerns among tourists seeking a destination. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.