Being Certain About Uncertainty: How the Representation of System Reliability Affects Pilot Decision Making

Abstract

The present study investigated how pilot decision making is affected by the manner in which the decision support information regarding system reliability is presented, by requiring aircrew participants to respond to a machine-identified target with a “shoot/no shoot” decision. The study investigated whether the provision of an alternate option to the primary identification would affect the decision to shoot, especially if this secondary option was either another enemy aircraft or a friendly fighter. In addition, two different representations were evaluated; one in which the information was presented as system uncertainty; and the other in which it was presented as system confidence. The results indicated that decision making behaviour changed when the system explicitly identified a friendly aircraft as the secondary target — prior willingness to fire on a target with a relatively high level of uncertainty disappeared. The time taken to make the decision was also found to be mediated by what information was given. These results are interpreted in the light of current trends in decision support development and design guidelines are discussed.