Dismissing return periods!

Abstract

The concept of return period in stationary univariate frequency analysis is prone to misconceptions and misuses that are well known but still widespread. In this study we highlight how nonstationary and multivariate extensions of such a concept are affected by additional misconceptions, thus easily resulting in further ill-posed procedures and misleading conclusions. We also show that the concepts of probability of exceedance and risk of failure over a given design life period provide more coherent, general and well devised tools for risk assessment and communication.