Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes

TLDR

Global warming’s impact on hurricane frequency and intensity is debated, with some studies predicting fewer, less energetic storms and others forecasting more intense hurricanes. The study investigates how global warming influences Atlantic hurricane dynamics. The authors employ a state‑of‑the‑art hurricane prediction model to conduct this investigation. The model projects a decline in total annual hurricanes but an increase in the most intense storms, especially in the western Atlantic, raising risk for Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and the southeastern United States. Bender et al.

Abstract

Stormy Weather One of the most active questions about the effects of global warming is whether, and how, it might affect the frequency and the strength of hurricanes. Some studies have suggested that warming will bring fewer, and less energetic, hurricanes, while others have claimed that we can expect more intense storms. Bender et al. (p. 454 ; see the news story by Kerr ) explore the influence of global warming on hurricane dynamics over the Atlantic Ocean with a state-of-the-art hurricane prediction model. The model predicts that the annual total number of hurricanes in the 21st century will be less than now, but also that the number of the most intense storms per year will increase. The largest increase of the most intense hurricane frequency is predicted in the western Atlantic, which suggests that Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and the Southeast coast of the United States could be at greater risk.