Personal Economic Well-Being and the Individual Vote for Congress: A Pooled Analysis, 1980-1990

Abstract

For nearly two decades congressional elections scholars have struggled to match individual-level findings for the pocketbook voting thesis with ag gregate-level findings. Whereas strong and consistent support can be found for the pocketbook thesis in presidential elections with both individual- level and aggregate-level data, significant support has been found for this thesis in U.S. House elections with aggregate-level data only. The typical individual-level congressional elections study examines a single election or series of single elections. We take an alternative approach. By pooling elections from 1980 to 1990, this inquiry demonstrates that retrospective pocketbook assessments indeed influence the individual's vote in congres sional elections. The benefit this result brings to the elections literature is symmetry between the findings for presidential elections and congressional elections regarding the decision rule voters follow when weighing eco nomic conditions when they vote.