The European mesothelioma epidemic

TLDR

Asbestos use in Western Europe remained high until 1980 and continues in several countries, with mesothelioma accounting for 1.6:1 of recorded pleural cancer deaths in Britain and assumed 1:1 elsewhere. The authors projected future mesothelioma deaths using a simple age‑ and birth‑cohort model fitted to male pleural cancer mortality from 1970–1989 in six Western European countries and validated it against observed deaths from 1990–1994. Projections indicate that annual male mesothelioma deaths in Western Europe will almost double from 5,000 in 1998 to about 9,000 around 2018, with a total of roughly 250,000 deaths over the next 35 years, and that men born 1945–1950 face a 1‑in‑150 risk of dying from the disease.

Abstract

Projections for the period 1995–2029 suggest that the number of men dying from mesothelioma in Western Europe each year will almost double over the next 20 years, from 5000 in 1998 to about 9000 around 2018, and then decline, with a total of about a quarter of a million deaths over the next 35 years. The highest risk will be suffered by men born around 1945–50, of whom about 1 in 150 will die of mesothelioma. Asbestos use in Western Europe remained high until 1980, and substantial quantities are still used in several European countries. These projections are based on the fit of a simple age and birth cohort model to male pleural cancer mortality from 1970 to 1989 for six countries (Britain, France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands and Switzerland) which together account for three-quarters of the population of Western Europe. The model was tested by comparing observed and predicted numbers of deaths for the period 1990–94. The ratio of mesothelioma to recorded pleural cancer mortality has been 1.6:1 in Britain but was assumed to be 1:1 in other countries.