Short Term Electricity Demand Forecasting for an Isolated Area using Two Different Approaches

Abstract

Electricity demand forecasting of an off-grid area, where no previous load data is available, is an important prerequisite for power system expansion planning. Bangladesh is a small as well as densely populated country in South Asia with a large portion of the population living under poverty line. About 48.5% of the total population has access in grid electricity. Uninterruptable power supply is one of the most important parameter for future development which ends up with a decision of obvious expansion of present grid coverage. This paper represents an analysis to forecast the electricity demand of an isolated island in Bangladesh where past history of electrical load demand is not available. The analysis is based on the identification of factors on which electrical load growth of an area depends. The forecasting has been done through inverse matrix calculation and linear regression analysis method. It has been found that the demand data, calculated from two different approaches, are close enough which spans the reliability of the proposed method. This method can be applicable for short term load forecasting of any isolated area throughout the world.