The IPCC future projections: are they plausible?

Abstract

Decisions by world governments on reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases are guided by the projections of possible future rises in global temperature and sea level provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These projections are based on the IPCC emission scenarios IS92a to f, future projections of possible changes in greenhouse gas emissions, energy usage, economic progress and population change. From these scenarios projected future atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases can be calculated, and these can be used to calculate radiative forcing as an input to computer climate models giving future temperature and sea level changes to the year 2100.