The 21–22 January 2004 explosive cyclogenesis over the Aegean Sea: Observations and model analysis

Abstract

Abstract During the period 21–22 January 2004, an explosive cyclogenesis event occurred over the Aegean Sea. The minimum observed pressure was 972 hPa, a value which is among the three lowest observed over the entire Mediterranean Sea during the last 40 years. This paper is devoted to the investigation of the conditions that contributed to the rapid development of this low‐pressure system through analysis of both observations and model results. It was found that the rapid development of the cyclone was associated with a two‐trough system that, under the influence of a very intense upper‐level jet, merged into a single trough and then acquired a negative tilt. Sensitivity tests with the MM5 model showed that the upper‐level dynamic forcing was the main factor that led to the explosive cyclogenesis, while surface sensible and latent heat fluxes contributed to the cyclone deepening mainly during the storm's mature phase. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society