Persistent, Consistent, Widespread, and Robust? Another Look at Recent Trends in Old-Age Disability

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to provide new evidence on disability trends among elderly persons from 1982 to 1996. METHODS: The sample includes 124,949 participants aged 70 and older in the 1982-1996 National Health Interview Surveys. Logistic analysis was used to estimate the trend in disability prevalence after controlling for various sociodemographic factors. RESULTS: We found that: (a) the prevalence of disability has declined, but the gains did not persist throughout the entire period or accelerate over time; (b) only routine care disability has declined, whereas more severe personal care disability shows no improvements; (c) estimates are robust to the exclusion of the nursing home population but may be sensitive to growth in the assisted living population; (d) estimates of decline in disability prevalence are fairly consistent across five national surveys; (e) gains have been concentrated among the most educated elderly persons; and (f) gains in education appear to be an important confounder of the improvements. DISCUSSION: Evidence from several surveys using various measures indicates that disability has declined among elderly persons. Determining the causes of the improvements should be a high priority in future research efforts.