Use of a stochastic process to sample wind power curves in planning studies

Abstract

Wind energy expansion is one of the prominent ongoing evolutions of power systems. Long-term planning studies carried out by system operators would benefit from the ability to build artificial wind power curves likening the actual behavior of the farms already installed. The nature of the problem suggests that stochastic modeling could lead to an acceptable solution. A theoretical analysis, followed by practical case studies carried out on the two largest wind energy producers worldwide (Germany and Spain), proves that this approach is indeed fruitful. The method and the matching software are currently being implemented by RTE in a new Monte Carlo generation adequacy simulator.