A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions

TLDR

Climate policy assumptions are key to linking socioeconomic pathways with climate forcing and outcomes. The study introduces shared climate policy assumptions as a core component of a new scenario framework. The framework couples socioeconomic reference pathways with climate model products via representative concentration pathways and incorporates shared climate policy assumptions—capturing policy goals, instruments, and obstacles—to expand the scenario matrix. This approach improves assessment of climate impacts, adaptation, mitigation, and enhances comparability of scenarios.

Abstract

The new scenario framework facilitates the coupling of multiple socioeconomic reference pathways with climate model products using the representative concentration pathways. This will allow for improved assessment of climate impacts, adaptation and mitigation. Assumptions about climate policy play a major role in linking socioeconomic futures with forcing and climate outcomes. The paper presents the concept of shared climate policy assumptions as an important element of the new scenario framework. Shared climate policy assumptions capture key policy attributes such as the goals, instruments and obstacles of mitigation and adaptation measures, and introduce an important additional dimension to the scenario matrix architecture. They can be used to improve the comparability of scenarios in the scenario matrix. Shared climate policy assumptions should be designed to be policy relevant, and as a set to be broad enough to allow a comprehensive exploration of the climate change scenario space.