Market evolution modeling for electric vehicles based on system dynamics and multi-agents

Abstract

The deployment of electrical charging service network and power distribution network depend largely on the precisely electric vehicle prediction. System dynamics and agent based modeling are adopted in this paper to build the system model of the electric vehicle prediction through the systematic analysis of the various factors which affecting the development of electric vehicles. Case simulation is conducted to analysis the evolution of market share of electric vehicles. The key factors which affect the development of EVs in different stages, demonstration promotion, rapid growth and steady development, is evaluated through sensitivity analysis. It is found that the electric vehicles will present the fast growth in next decades, and it is mainly affected by government policies at initial period, then the development of technology and infrastructure construction will become the important factors in future.