Integrated reactive nitrogen budgets and future trends in China

Abstract

Significance China is the world’s largest producer of reactive nitrogen (Nr), and Nr in the form of synthetic fertilizer has contributed substantially to increased food production there. However, Nr losses from overuse and misuse of fertilizer, combined with industrial emissions, represent a serious and growing cause of air and water pollution. This paper presents a substantially complete and coherent Nr budget for China and for 14 subsystems within China from 1980 to 2010, evaluates human health/longevity and environmental consequences of excess Nr, and explores several scenarios for Nr in China in 2050. These scenarios suggest that reasonable pathways exist whereby excess Nr could be reduced substantially, while at the same time benefitting human well-being and environmental health.