Changes in the odds of extreme events in the Atlantic basin depending on the position of the extratropical jet

Abstract

In this study we establish a link between the position of the extratropical jet over the Atlantic and extreme temperature events (below the local seasonal 5% quantile or above the 95% quantile respectively) and wind events (above the local 98% quantile) in the Atlantic basin for the present climate. The strongest link between temperature extremes and the jet is found for the winter season. Extended areas in Europe, Greenland and North America see an increased or decreased chance of winter cold extremes depending on the jet position, even up to a week after the jet occupied the position of interest. Chances of warm temperature extremes in summer in southeastern Europe are higher several days after the jet was located in the central Atlantic. Chances of wind extremes are higher in Western Europe at the latitude of the jet and reduced to the north and south.