THE TRANSITING EXOPLANET SURVEY SATELLITE: SIMULATIONS OF PLANET DETECTIONS AND ASTROPHYSICAL FALSE POSITIVES

Abstract

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) is a NASA-sponsored Explorer\nmission that will perform a wide-field survey for planets that transit bright\nhost stars. Here, we predict the properties of the transiting planets that TESS\nwill detect along with the eclipsing binary stars that produce false-positive\nphotometric signals. The predictions are based on Monte Carlo simulations of\nthe nearby population of stars, occurrence rates of planets derived from\nKepler, and models for the photometric performance and sky coverage of the TESS\ncameras. We expect that TESS will find approximately 1700 transiting planets\nfrom 200,000 pre-selected target stars. This includes 556 planets smaller than\ntwice the size of Earth, of which 419 are hosted by M dwarf stars and 137 are\nhosted by FGK dwarfs. Approximately 130 of the $R < 2~R_\\oplus$ planets will\nhave host stars brighter than K = 9. Approximately 48 of the planets with $R <\n2~R_\\oplus$ lie within or near the habitable zone ($0.2 < S/S_\\oplus < 2$), and\nbetween 2-7 such planets have host stars brighter than K = 9. We also expect\napproximately 1100 detections of planets with radii 2-4 R_Earth, and 67 planets\nlarger than $4~R_\\oplus$. Additional planets larger than $2~R_\\oplus$ can be\ndetected around stars that are not among the pre-selected target stars, because\nTESS will also deliver full-frame images at a 30-minute cadence. The planet\ndetections are accompanied by over one thousand astrophysical false positives.\nWe discuss how TESS data and ground-based observations can be used to\ndistinguish the false positives from genuine planets. We also discuss the\nprospects for follow-up observations to measure the masses and atmospheres of\nthe TESS planets.\n