Reliability analyses of slope stability

Abstract

ABSTRACT This paper proposes the coupling of reliability analysis methods with various mechanical approaches, for a slope stability assessment. Probabilistic strategies include Monte Carlo Simulation method (MCS), First and Second Order Reliability Methods (FORM, SORM), Mean-Value First-Order Second-Moment method (MFOSM) and Quadrature method (QM). Three mechanical models are considered: a Caquot-Taylor formula, a limit equilibrium method of Bishop and a finite element (FE) model based on the strength reduction method (SRM). The present study assumes both the cohesion and friction angle of the soil as uncertain input parameters, to be modelled as correlated random variables. The dependence of the slope reliability on the mechanical modelling and used probabilistic strategies is highlighted.