Isotropic thaw subsidence in undisturbed permafrost landscapes

Abstract Observations in undisturbed terrain within some regions of the Arctic reveal limited correlation between increasing air temperature and the thickness of the seasonally thawed layer above ice‐rich permafrost. Here we describe landscape‐scale, thaw‐induced subsidence lacking the topographic contrasts associated with thermokarst terrain. A high‐resolution, 11 year record of temperature and vertical movement at the ground surface from contrasting physiographic regions of northern Alaska, obtained with differential global positioning systems technology, indicates that thaw of an ice‐rich layer at the top of permafrost has produced decimeter‐scale subsidence extending over the entire landscapes. Without specialized observation techniques the subsidence is not apparent to observers at the surface. This “isotropic thaw subsidence” explains the apparent stability of active layer thickness records from some landscapes of northern Alaska, despite warming near‐surface air temperatures. Integrated over extensive regions, it may be responsible for thawing large volumes of carbon‐rich substrate and could have negative impacts on infrastructure.