Ethnic population projections for the uk and local areas, 2001-2051

Abstract

This report summarises the results of ESRC Research Award, RES-165-25-0032, What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas, 1 October 2007 to 31 March 2010. The principal aim of the project was to produce projections of ethnic group populations for local areas in the UK. The ethnic make-up of the UK?s population is changing significantly at present and groups outside the White British majority are increasing in size and share, not only in the areas of initial immigration but throughout the country. This growth is driven by all the demographic components: immigration balanced by emigration, differences among ethnic groups in fertility levels and varying mortality experiences. Important spatial re-distribution of the population is taking place through internal migration. The ethnic make-up of local areas is therefore evolving. The composition of the population is also changing through the birth of children of mixed ethnic origins. We estimate all of these components of change for 16 ethnic groups and 352 local authorities in England together with estimates for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The most reliable estimates can be made for 2001, when the last decennial census was held. However, we extend these estimates to later in the decade, to the 2006-7 or 2007-8 mid-year to mid-year intervals, depending on component.