Lilliputian in a Goliath World: The Preventive Diplomacy of Slovenia in Solving the Question of Kosovo's Independence

Abstract

Introduction According to the theory of small states in international relations, small states do not have as many means to achieve their foreign policy goals as larger states have (Morgenthau, 1948/2004: 97; Keohane, 1969; Benwell, 2011). However, there are certain niches that can be filled up by small states, since they have certain comparative advantages to larger states (see for example Vital, 1967; Keohane, 1969; Ingebritsen, 2006; Cooper and Shaw, 2009; Steinmetz and Wivel, 2010). Due to certain rules and procedures in modern international relations, an important foreign policy task can be assigned to a small state. On one side, an important role can arise from the state's own ambitions to 'become' an important and credible actor in the international community (e.g. with candidature for a presidency of certain international organization), or on the other hand, such a role may arise from unexpected events in the international community (e. g. when an armed conflict breaks out in vicinity of the state, certain actors in the international community may ask the state to take certain measures regarding the conflict). Slovenia, a country which by most of the definitions falls in the category of small states (Grizold and Vegic, 2001; Bucar and Sterbenc, 2002; Sabic, 2002; Brglez, 2005; Udovic and Svetlicic, 2007), took over the presidency of the EU Council on the 1st January 2008, as the first new member state of the EU. Within this period it has been assigned an important role of chairing the work of all the configurations of the EU Council and representing the institution in the international community. Slovenia, which has in its brief history as an independent nation already performed some demanding foreign policy tasks (UN Security Council presidency in 1998/99; OSCE chairmanship in 2005), faced not only the challenge of the EU presidency per se, but also one of the major (geo)political challenges of that time--when Slovenia took over the presidency, Kosovo was in final preparations to declare independence from Serbia. Planned proclamation of independence triggered harsh responses in Serbia and according to some analysts (Krstic, 2007; Janjic, 2007; Matic, 2007; Sesternina, 2007) and media reports (B92, 2007; HINA, 2007), there was a substantial chance that the declaration of independence may renew armed conflict between Kosovars and Serbs. The worst case scenario was that a renewal of armed conflict in Kosovo would eventually cause a spill-over effect, which could lead into violence in the wider region (Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Albania). Acknowledging that the EU perceives countries of the Western Balkans as natural parts of the EU, and consequently sees them as potential members of the EU in the near future (see for example EurActiv, 2009; Barroso, 2011), avoiding possible instabilities was necessary and it was clear that Slovenia, as the presiding member of the EU Council, was entitled to take appropriate measures to mitigate the tense situation in the neighbourhood. Regardless of later developments, we argue that Slovenia, as a small state, was in the most crucial period, a coherent and honest broker between both sides in the Kosovo conflict. Slovenia was, because of its past ties with the region and its knowledge of national character particularities (Raskovic and Svetlicic 2011; Udovic 2011), able to conduct a stable and unbiased policy towards both nations involved in the Kosovo conflict. Its power of 'balance' sprang from its (positive) reputation in the region; firstly it was the first state from the region to join the EU, secondly it was the presiding member state of the EU, and thirdly, its role and behaviour during the dissolution of Yugoslavia in the 1990s and the wars that followed was relatively untarnished (Prebilic and Gustin, 2011). Both facts gave it a higher manoeuvre place, because on the one hand it was able to cope with particularities of national character of negotiators from Kosovo and Serbia, while on the other hand it remained calm and was not a priori in favour of anyone, retaining good relations with both countries. …