Risk identification and assessment of modular construction utilizing fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and simulation

TLDR

Modular construction improves safety yet introduces uncertainty from engineering, occupational, cultural, socio‑economic, and financial factors, rendering conventional onsite risk‑management research inapplicable. The study aims to identify risk factors in modular construction and evaluate their effects on project cost and duration. Using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to rank the identified risks and simulation techniques to assess their impact, the methodology is validated by expert focus groups and statistical analysis, illustrated with an Edmonton project case.

Abstract

Modular construction brings improved safety and mitigates risks of hazard and injury. However, modular construction technology is also challenged with a degree of uncertainty resulting from such internal and external factors as engineering, occupational, cultural, socio-economic, and financial. Since modular construction is by nature distinct from conventional construction, existing risk management research for onsite construction cannot be directly applied to modular construction. This paper describes research on the risk management associated with modular construction, focusing on: (1) identifying risk factors and (2) assessing the impacts of the identified risk factors on project cost and duration. The primary risk factors associated with modular construction are identified, and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is utilized to rank these factors; simulation techniques are employed to assess the risks of projects. The risk identification and ranking are evaluated by a focus group of experts from the modular construction industry; t-distribution and chi-squared distribution are applied to analyze the results. The case of a project in Edmonton, Canada is presented to illustrate application of the proposed methodology.