Journal of African Economies · 1995 · 48 citations · 2 references
Economic DevelopmentDevelopment EconomicsLabour Surplus EconomyMacroeconomic EffectsSocial SciencesPovertyMacroeconomic ModelEconomic InequalityAids EpidemicStatisticsDemographic ImpactSocio-economic DevelopmentAfrican DevelopmentPublic PolicyEconomicsDevelopment AidMacroeconomic ImpactEconomic PolicyMacroeconomicsGlobal HealthBusinessLow Income Developing CountryDevelopment Policy
This paper simulates the macroeconomic effects of the AIDS epidemic in Malawi. This is done by using Bulatao's (1990) predictions of the disease's demographic impact in a dual-economy macro model. The with-AIDS scenario is compared with a counterfactual no-AIDS scenario to assess the impact of the disease if it spreads unchecked. The results suggest that by the year 2010, Malawian real GDP could be as much as 10% smaller than it would have been in the absence of the AIDS epidemic. The impact on per capita income is smaller, ranging from 0% to 3% lower than it would have been in the no-AIDS case by 2010.
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A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth
Robert M. Solow · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · 1956 · 23.5K citations