Outsiderness, Social Class, and Votes in the 2014 European Elections

Abstract

Votes have for a long time been considered to be structured by class conflict. However, in the 2014 European elections, vote does not seem to be significantly structured by traditional class. Instead, contemporary European societies face the melting down of the traditional working class and an increasing dualism between labour market “insiders” and “outsiders”. How do these socio-economic changes translate into politics? Building on the emerging literature on outsiderness and a survey conducted after the European elections of 2014, this article shows that traditional class divides have a limited electoral impact and that the insider-outsider divide tends to have only “negative” effects, decreasing voting turnout as well as support for the major right wing parties. The best predictor of voting behaviour is the subjective assessment by the respondents of their social position and its upward or downward trajectory.