Exile Politics and<scp>R</scp>epublican<scp>P</scp>arty Affiliation: The Case of<scp>C</scp>uban<scp>A</scp>mericans in<scp>M</scp>iami*

Abstract

Objectives We test the hypothesis that exile politics—measured by support for anti‐ C astro policies—contribute to the overwhelming preference for the R epublican P arty among S outh F lorida's C uban A mericans. Methods Logistic regression is used to analyze six surveys conducted in S outh F lorida between 1995 and D ecember 2008. Results Among C uban A mericans in M iami‐ D ade C ounty, measures of exile politics account for a recent downward shift in R epublican registration, as well as for much of the variation in R epublican registration by race and age. Also, measures of exile politics partly explain differences between C ubans and non‐ C ubans with regard to partisan preference. Conclusion Although some scholars argue that domestic issues have taken a back seat in guiding party preferences for M iami's C ubans, a decline in support for anti‐ C astro policies appears to have created a greater opening for domestic concerns in the 2008 election cycle.