What About the Bell-shaped Relationship Between Primacy and Development?

Abstract

This paper proposes, estimates, and tests a “no-frills” static two-equation recursive model, where the size of the largest city depends on the level of development in a two-step relationship, with the total urban population intervening as an intermediate variable. The model has the following implications for primacy: (1) contrary to Richardson and Schwartz's (1988) assertion, primacy is indeed related to development, albeit indirectly, but (2) the relationship does not display the bell shape predicted by the El-Shakhs-Mera hypothesis. Instead, primacy as a function of development decreases monotonically at a decreasing rate. Research assistance was provided by Atib Salhi.