Do <scp>CMIP5</scp> simulations of Indian summer monsoon rainfall differ from those of <scp>CMIP3</scp>?

Abstract

Abstract To understand the improvements in the simulations of Indian summer monsoon rainfall ( ISMR ) by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 ( CMIP5 ) over CMIP3 , a comparative study is performed with the original and statistically downscaled outputs of five General Circulation Models ( GCMs ). We observe that multi‐model average of original CMIP5 simulations do not show visible improvements in bias, over CMIP3 . We also observe that CMIP5 original simulations have more multi‐model uncertainty than those of CMIP3 . The statistically downscaled simulations show similar results in terms of bias; however, the uncertainty in CMIP5 downscaled rainfall projections is lower than that of CMIP3 .