Reduction in temporal and spatial extent of the Indian summer monsoon

Abstract

In the backdrop of a changing climate, we investigate whether the Indian summer monsoon is changing either in terms of duration or spatial coverage. Such an analysis specifically for the continental Indian region has both conceptual and societal implications, and has been lacking. We show here, based on an analysis of daily gridded observed rainfall data for the period 1951–2003, that there are decreasing trends in both early and late monsoon rainfall and number of rainy days, implying a shorter monsoon over India. Similarly, there is a sharp decrease in the area that receives a certain amount of rainfall and number of rainy days during the season. These trends are consistent with other variables like OLR and rainfall from independent datasets; in particular, the land‐ocean temperature contrast has a decreasing trend, consistent with a weakening monsoon. The results emphasize need for careful regional analysis in drawing conclusions regarding agro‐ecological sustainability in a changing climate.