Grain for Green: Cost-Effectiveness and Sustainability of China's Conservation Set-Aside Program

TLDR

Since 1999, China has pursued Grain for Green, an ambitious conservation set‑aside program to prevent soil erosion. This paper evaluates its cost‑effectiveness and sustainability. The study finds that the program successfully retires erosion‑prone plots but could target better, that more accurate payments could yield fiscal savings, and that some farmers may reconvert land to cultivation after the program ends.

Abstract

<i>Since 1999, China has pursued Grain for Green, an ambitious conservation set-aside program to prevent soil erosion. This paper evaluates its cost-effectiveness and sustainability. The results indicate that while the program has made a clear attempt to retire plots that are susceptible to soil erosion, there is room for better targeting. The government also may be able to generate fiscal savings if the payments more accurately reflect the differences in the opportunity costs of each plot. The study finds that some farmers may reconvert the land back to cultivation after program ends.</i> (JEL Q23, H43)