A semi-empirical model for the estimation of maximum horizontal displacement due to liquefaction-induced lateral spreading

Abstract

During the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake, liquefaction-induced lateral spreading and resultant ground displacements damaged bridges, buried utilities and lifelines, conventional structures, and other developed works. This paper presents an improved engineering tool for the prediction of maximum displacement due to liquefaction-induced lateral spreading. A semi-empirical approach is employed, combining mechanistic understanding and data from laboratory testing with data and lessons from full-scale earthquake field case histories. The principle of strain potential index, based primarily on correlation of cyclic simple shear laboratory testing results with in-situ Standard Penetration Test (SPT) results, is used as an index to characterize the deformation potential of soils after they liquefy. A Bayesian probabilistic approach is adopted for development of the final predictive model, in order to take fullest advantage of the data available and to deal with the inherent uncertainties intrinsic to the back-analyses of field case histories. A case history from the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake is utilized to demonstrate the ability of the resultant semi-empirical model to estimate maximum horizontal displacement due to liquefaction-induced lateral spreading.