Sensitivity of limiting hurricane intensity to ocean warmth

Abstract

The strongest hurricanes are getting stronger as the oceans heat up especially over the North Atlantic. Sensitivity of hurricane intensity to ocean heating is an important variable for understanding what hurricanes might be like in the future, but reliable estimates are not possible with short time‐series records. Studies using paired values of intensity and sea‐surface temperature (SST) are also limited because most pairs represent hurricanes in an environment less than thermodynamically optimal. Here we overcome these limitations using spatial grids and a model for the limiting hurricane intensity by region and estimate the sensitivity to be 7.9 ± 1.19 m s − K −1 (s.e.) for hurricanes over seas hotter than 25°C across the North Atlantic. Results indicate the potential for stronger hurricanes during the 21st century as oceans continue to warm over this part of the world.