Science · 2000 · 638 citations · 14 references
EducationPsychologyDecision AnalysisStatistical ModelingStatisticsCommunication About UncertaintyInferential StatisticsProbability ConceptsStatistical AnalysisStatistical InferenceStatistical ReasoningCommunicating Medical UncertaintyCommunicating Statistical UncertaintyConditional Probability CommunicationInterpreting Statistical InformationNumerical Probability CommunicationProbability-based Decision SupportStatistical Decision TheoryVerbal Probability Expressions
Most people, experts included, have difficulties understanding and combining statistical information effectively. Hoffrage et al. demonstrate that these difficulties can be considerably reduced by communicating the information in terms of natural frequencies rather than in terms of probabilities. Several applications in medicine, legal decision-making, and education are discussed.
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Glenn Shafer, Daniel Kahnerman, Paul Slovic et al. · Journal of the American Statistical Association · 1984 · 5.7K citations
Efficacy of Screening Mammography
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Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome
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