A robust increase in the eddy length scale in the simulation of future climates

Abstract

Output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 3 are analysed. It is shown that for the ‘A2’ business as usual scenario, every model exhibits an increase in the eddy length scale in the future compared with the simulation of 20th Century climate. The increase in length scale is on the order of 5% by the end of the 21st century, and the Southern Hemisphere exhibits a larger increase than the Northern Hemisphere. The inter‐model variability in the increase in the eddy length scale is correlated with the variability in the increase in dry static stability at 700 hPa. Inspection of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data indicates that the eddy length scale in the Southern Hemisphere may have increased in recent decades.