Predictive models of the risk of hospital admission and re-admission: current and future development

Abstract

Background A number of models are available in the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK) for use in predicting the risk of hospitalization, from general and insured populations. These models are being used in order to respond to health policies, such as Pay for Performance measures, aimed at reducing unnecessary hospital admissions, and to help patients avoid hospital admissions that are expensive and create risks to patient safety. These predictive models are being used for a variety of purposes including: screening patients for Case Management Programs and/or Disease Management Programs, organizational profiling, and assessing financial risk.