Evaluation and Comparison of Statistical and Conventional Methods of Forecasting Avalanche Hazard

Abstract

Abstract Principal problems concerning the raw data and methodological limitations of statistical and conventional avalanche forecasting methods are summarized. The concepts of four statistical models based on multivariate data analysis, are outlined in a few words. In order to give an idea of the potential and quality of the different methods, test runs over two winters are discussed and a tentative store is established. Statistical models I and IV, together with the conventional forecast, attain a score of 70-80%, whereas statistical models II and III show a slightly poorer performance.