High Altitude Atmospheric Modeling

Abstract

Five empirical models were compared with 13 data sets, including both atmospheric drag-based data and mass spectrometer data. The most recently published model, MSIS-86, was found to be the best model overall with an accuracy around 15 percent. The excellent overall agreement of the mass spectrometer-based MSIS models with the drag data, including both the older data from orbital decay and the newer accelerometer data, suggests that the absolute calibration of the (ensemble of) mass spectrometers and the assumed drag coefficient in the atomic oxygen regime are consistent to 5 percent. This study illustrates a number of reasons for the current accuracy limit such as calibration accuracy and unmodeled trends. Nevertheless, the largest variations in total density in the thermosphere are accounted for, to a very high degree, by existing models. The greatest potential for improvements is in areas where we still have insufficient data (like the lower thermosphere or exosphere), where there are disagreements in technique (such as the exosphere) which can be resolved, or wherever generally more accurate measurements become available.