Coupled modelling of glacier and streamflow response to future climate scenarios

Abstract

This study investigated the sensitivity of streamflow to changes in climate and glacier cover for the Bridge River basin, British Columbia, using a semi‐distributed conceptual hydrological model coupled with a glacier response model. Mass balance data were used to constrain model parameters. Climate scenarios included a continuation of the current climate and two transient GCM scenarios with greenhouse gas forcing. Modelled glacier mass balance was used to re‐scale the glacier every decade using a volume‐area scaling relation. Glacier area and summer streamflow declined strongly even under the steady‐climate scenario, with the glacier retreating to a new equilibrium within 100 years. For the warming scenarios, glacier retreat continued with no evidence of reaching a new equilibrium. Uncertainty in parameters governing glacier melt produced uncertainty in future glacier retreat and streamflow response. Where mass balance information is not available to assist with calibration, model‐generated future scenarios will be subject to significant uncertainty.