Changing patterns of urban travel

Abstract

This paper, which is in two parts, describes a study sponsored by the European Conference of Ministers of Transport aimed at explaining transport trends in cities, identifying likely future changes and assessing the implications for transport policy. Its conclusions are based on an analysis of travel data from over 100 towns in eleven countries. All the countries exhibited similar trends in the movement of population and jobs from large to small towns and from central to peripheral areas, with important consequences for travel. The effect of growing car ownership on public transport use was found to be remarkably similar in different countries and most of the variation in public transport trends could be explained in terms of similar mechanisms. It is concluded in Part 2 that in the longer term the underlying explanatory factors will tend to change in favour of private car use and against the interests of public transport, even in countries where they at present favour public transport. Public transport will as a result become relatively more expensive and less convenient, or will require growing amounts of subsidy. A range of transport policy alternatives are discussed in the light of these findings.