Cost analysis of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles including Maintenance & Repair Costs and Resale Values

TLDR

The study evaluates the cost competitiveness of various electrified propulsion technologies in Germany’s 2020 auto market. The authors compare parallel hybrids (with and without external charging), a serial range‑extended electric vehicle, a conventional SI car, a full battery electric vehicle, and a hydrogen fuel‑cell vehicle, focusing on maintenance, repair costs, and expected resale value within a comprehensive total cost of ownership model. The analysis shows that total cost of ownership gaps for alternative drivetrains will shrink by 2020, mainly due to lower production costs, and that hybrids benefit from lower maintenance and higher resale value, making them attractive for high‑mileage users, though no single powertrain will dominate midterm, increasing strategic risk for automakers.

Abstract

This paper analyses the cost competitiveness of different electrified propulsion technologies for the German auto market in 2020. Several types of hybrid electric vehicles including parallel hybrids (with and without external charging) and a serial range extended electric vehicle are compared to a conventional car with SI engine, a full battery electric vehicle and a hydrogen powered fuel cell vehicle. Special focus lies on the maintenance and repair cost and the expected resale value of alternative vehicles, which have been integrated within one extensive total cost of ownership model. The assessment shows that the current TCO gaps for alternative drivetrains will decrease significantly by 2020 mainly driven by the reduction in production cost. Furthermore hybrid electric vehicles will profit from lower maintenance and repair cost and a higher expected resale value compared to conventional cars. Therefore, hybrid electric vehicles will be an attractive option in particular for users with high annual mileages, who can benefit from the low operating cost of EVs in combination with unlimited driving range. The analysis concludes that there will not be one dominant powertrain design in the midterm future. Hence, automakers have to manage a wide portfolio of competing drivetrain architectures, which will increase the risk and complexity of strategic decisions.