SSRN Electronic Journal · 2008 · 117 citations · 0 references
Social SciencesConflict StudiesPolitical ScienceHomicidePolitical ViolenceSecurity StudiesCrimes Against HumanityHomicide PreventionMass AtrocityViolenceWar CrimesAssessmentsMass Atrocity ForecastingMass Killing DynamicsMass Killing PoliciesMass Violence ForecastingPolitical Instability ForecastingPolitical Instability RiskPolitical Violence Analysis
Cross‑national comparative research on state‑sponsored mass killing is scarce, despite its importance for policy makers seeking to prevent or respond to such violence. The study investigates when and why states kill their own civilians on a large scale and which countries are most at risk, and it outlines the research elements and key findings. Researchers compiled a new dataset in 2006–2007 and performed statistical modeling to forecast mass‑killing risk, then applied the models to assess country vulnerability worldwide in 2008. The analysis yields major findings and country‑level vulnerability assessments for 2008, identifying states most likely to experience future mass killings.
When and why do states kill their own civilians on a large scale, and which countries worldwide are more likely to suffer state-sponsored mass killing in the future? In spite of the obvious and continuing relevance of these questions to policy-makers concerned with preventing or responding to this kind of violence, scholars have undertaken relatively little of the kind of cross-national, comparative research that could serve as the basis for systematic prediction and general understanding of mass killing. In 2006–2007, the Political Instability Task Force (PITF) created a new data set and undertook a statistical analysis to develop models that could be used to help answer these questions. This paper describes the elements of that research and presents the major findings from it. In light of the Task Force's emphasis on forecasting, it also discusses how this research can be applied to assess countries' vulnerability to mass killing and presents such assessments for countries worldwide in 2008.