Globalization, Import Prices and Producer Prices in Austria

Abstract

The growing theoretical and empirical literature suggests that globalization may have reduced inflation, particularly in high-income countries. Austria’s integration in the world economy has made a quantum leap over the past decade. Has this development dampened inflation in Austria? This paper first offers a broad overview of six channels through which one could expect globalization to reduce inflation. Then, two specific channels are investigated empirically for Austria. First, the effects from the increasing share of imports from low-cost countries on import prices are estimated. It is found that overall import prices were slightly dampened by the rising, and meanwhile substantial, share of imports from the new EU Member States. By contrast, China and other emerging economies play a negligible role for Austrian import price developments. Second, the effect of global competition on producer prices in Austria is studied. It is found that globalization has moderately dampened relative producer prices in the Austrian manufacturing sector, while increases in labor productivity had a larger effect. A rationale for the rather modest globalization effects on import and producer price inflation in Austria is that the country’s foreign trade and FDI links are still – despite the surge of links with central and eastern European countries – mainly with other high-income European countries.: