Impact of Unfunded Pension Obligations on Credit Quality of State Governments

Abstract

This study reviews the funding status of state‐administered pension plans and their impact on state credit quality. As the fund ratio (actuarial assets/actuarial accrued liability) of state‐administered pension plans decreases, states are more likely assigned a lower rating. Moreover, rating outlooks are sensitive to the fund ratio, especially for migration between stable and negative outlooks for states with lower fund ratios. These results are a timely pretest to the 2013/2014 implementation of GASB Statements No. 67 and 68, serving as a benchmark to assess whether new reporting requirements will yield information to alter the market's response to unfunded pension liabilities.