Projecting future sea level rise : methodology, estimates to the year 2100, and research needs

Abstract

Concentrations of atmospheric CO/sub 2/ and other greenhouse gases will continue to increase in coming decades. Two National Academy of Sciences panels have concluded that higher levels of these gases will almost certainly produce a large global warming. That warming, by thermally expanding the oceans and by causing the transfer of ice and snow resting on land to the oceans, should raise sea level substantially faster than the rise that has taken place during the past century. Although current knowledge is inadequate to make a precise prediction of future sea level rise, it is sufficient to predict the likely range. Many factors were considered in generating the estimates of sea level rise contained in this report: population and productivity growth, atmospheric and climatic change, and oceanic and glacial response. High and low assumptions for these principal determinants of sea level rise were derived from the literature. When linked together the various assumptions allowed the estimation of high and low paths of future sea level rise. 88 references.