Federalism, Fiscal Restraints, and European Monetary Union

TLDR

The Maastricht Treaty imposes fiscal restrictions to prevent overborrowing and stabilize the common currency. The study examines the Excessive Deficit Procedure, which is triggered when a country's deficit exceeds 3 % and debt exceeds 60 % of GDP. The EDP requires member states to meet fiscal criteria during the EMU transition, is activated by European Council declaration based on Commission reports and Monetary Committee judgment, and can lead to ECB bailouts that are either ex post monetization or ex ante low‑rate support. After EMU entry, member states must avoid deficits; otherwise, the ECB may be forced to bail out governments, either by monetizing debt or lowering rates, potentially generating inflationary pressures.

Abstract

A prominent feature of the Maastricht Treaty on European Union is the restrictions it places on fiscal policy. Under the provisions of the Excessive Deficit Procedure, or EDP, the success of member states in avoiding during the transition to economic and monetary union (EMU) is one of four criteria governing admission to the monetary union. Once monetary union has begun, member states are unconditionally required to avoid deficits. A state has an when it is so declared by the European Council upon a report by the European Commission and a judgment by the Monetary Committee. The EDP is set in motion if a country's deficit and general government debt respectively exceed 3 percent and 60 percent of GDP.' The justification for these procedures is that member states participating in the monetary union must be restrained from overborrowing to avoid destabilizing the common currency. If excessive deficits cause a debt crisis, the European Central Bank (ECB) will come under pressure to bail out the imperiled government. The bailout could be ex post (in which case the ECB would monetize the government's debt) or ex ante (in which case it would keep interest rates low to lighten the debt-service burden). Either way, unfettered fiscal policies could create inflationary pressures that the ECB will find difficult to resist.