XXXIX. The haze of Bayes, the aerial palaces of decision analysis, and the computerized Ouija board

Abstract

Most people prefer to avoid complicated problems. Politicians confronted with a complex, multi‐faceted dilemma will usually try to satisfy their constituents, rather than struggle with basic solutions to the dilemma. Judges asked to settle a major legal controversy will often make their decisions not by directly resolving the substantive issue, but by evading it, to reach a conclusion based on matters of technical procedure.