Climate sensitivity of the Earth to solar irradiance

Abstract

The mean surface temperature of the Earth depends on various climate factors with much attention directed toward possible anthropogenic causes. However, one must first determine the stronger effects such as El Niño/La Niña and volcanoes. A weaker effect, which must exist, is solar irradiance. We have determined the solar effect on the temperature from satellites measurements (available since 1979) of the solar irradiance and the temperature of the lower troposphere. We find the sensitivity to solar irradiance to be about twice that expected from a no‐feedback Stefan‐Boltzmann radiation balance model. This climate gain of a factor of two implies positive feedback. We also have determined a linear trend in the data. These results are robust under truncation from either end of the of the data record. These measurements of solar sensitivity are consistent with prior estimates from ocean temperatures on decadal scales and of paleo‐reconstructed temperatures on centennial scales.