Impact of the Madden Julian Oscillation on tropical storms and risk of landfall in the ECMWF forecast system

Abstract

Using a series of 46‐days hindcasts, this paper shows that the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has a significant impact on the statistics of tropical storms generated by a dynamical model. This impact is generally consistent with observations. In particular the risk of landfall over Australia and North America varies significantly with the phases of the MJO, as observed. This suggests that sub‐seasonal prediction of the risk of tropical storm landfall should be possible with a dynamical model such as the one used in this study, which has skill in predicting the evolution of the MJO up to 20 days.