Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition

Abstract

Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition, Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius and Werner Rothengatter, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2003, 207 pp., £40.00 h/b, £14.99 (p/b) To many of us, Bent Flyvbjerg is probably best known for his contributions to the planning theory debate, in particular juxtaposing Habermas's discourse ethics with Foucauldian power dialectics in his book Rationality and Power in 1998. However, Megaprojects and Risk, though Flyvbjerg features in bold and on top of the cover, is a joint effort by Flyvbjerg and his colleagues Nils Burzelius, from Stockholm (Sweden) and Werner Rothengatter from Karlsruhe (Germany). As the title promises, the core theme is projects of a 'mega' scale, such as the Oresund link, the Great Belt link or the Channel Tunnel. The authors bring together a considerable academic and consultancy experience regarding the appraisal of such projects - including the example of the Fehmarn Belt, a practical application of the academic considerations developed and presented by the authors in the annex of the book. The overall structure of the book starts with an introduction outlining the main arguments of the text. Chapter 2 provides some facts and figures on megaprojects, especially on the 'mega' cost overruns often linked with megaprojects. It is quite astounding to learn that in some cases final costs were almost twice as high as planned-and we are talking. for example. about billions of pound sterling! The following chapters address further particularities of projects of such a category. The economic viability (Chapter 4), environmental impacts (Chapter 5, which also highlights different approaches towards environmental impact assessment, for example, in the UK and Germany), regional growth effects (Chapter 6) and risk analysis (Chapter 7) come respectively under scrutiny. The regional growth effects are particularly interesting. Infrastructure investments and regional development are usually seen as an important linkage. Drawing on assessments of the Channel Tunnel (by R. Vickerman), the Great Belt and the Oresund link, in the main the authors urge the reader to be cautious. The regional development effects are not simply the results of a straightforward economic process. Rather, cultural and institutional impediments are sometimes more important, for the better or the worse. Finally, as the proportion of transport costs is rather small in relation to the overall production costs of companies, the investment in transport infrastructures (all above-mentioned projects fall into this category) is in consequence less important. However, there are incidences of positive effects, mainly in regions with serious capacity effects or in large congested urban areas After this critical analysis, the book turns in the following chapters towards the planning and project management side. …