THE DISTRIBUTIONAL AND REVENUE CONSEQUENCES OF REFORMING THE MORTGAGE INTEREST DEDUCTION

Abstract

The mortgage interest deduction (MID) is costly, and half the benefits accrue to the top 10 percent of taxpayers. This paper analyzes how five modifications to the MID would affect federal individual income tax revenue and the distribution of the tax burden. Under full repeal, federal individual income tax revenue is estimated to increase by up to $1.3 trillion, equal to 0.7 percent of GDP, between 2012 and 2021. Converting the deduction to a 15 percent non-refundable credit could increase federal individual income tax revenue by up to $599 billion, equal to 0.3 percent of GDP, over this period.